Can You Really Break Vegas? The Cool Probabilities that Power Vegas Slots (Without the Hollywood Veneer)
From National Lampoons Vegas Vacation (yes, I’m that old) to the sleek shine of Ocean’s Eleven and gritty hot-takes like Billions and the Spanish telenovela Ana Teramel El Jugeo that caught international attention last year, gambling and the sleek gloss of Hollywood seem to go hand. Heck, there’s even a full Steam category dedicated to casino games! It’s glitter, it’s glam, and it’s a sure-fire bet all of the time (at least on the silver screen).
The Glam of Gambling
Yet as we slide through the first few months of 2022, you might have noticed a ton of press noise from British papers about the dangerous slide from crypto ape to all-out gambling addict and woeful stories of how the number of British women needing treatment for gambling-related addiction has doubled in half a decade.
Of course, we’re never going to actually see a newspaper sit up and go, “Gambling? Yeah, go do it right now!” Overseen by the UK Gambling Commission here in the UK, casual gambling both online and in-person has become a national British pastime that most of us can enjoy without too much worry, but which doesn’t quite carry the high-stakes glamor and glitter Hollywood insists it does, either. With the number of people who enjoy an online poke at the slots rising due to the increased isolation of lockdowns and a general aversion to things requiring real face-to-face time because it’s too people-y out there, where does that leave us? It’s time to do that thing all good geeks do. No, not that, you sick soul. It’s time to crack out the math, slap on the thinking caps, and answer that age-old question: can you actually ‘Break Vegas’ the way the red carpet insists?
If anyone can, geeks can. So let’s geek it out.
Why Life is Just Like National Lampoon
Going back to National Lampoon’s Vegas Vacation for a minute. Shut up, Gen Z, they’re classics and everyone should know them.
Anyway, so Clark W. Griswold, Chevy Chase’s character, goes on an epic losing streak while his son, Rusty, takes all the wins. Life being unfair? Karma? Nah, that’s what we studly geeks like to call mathematical probability (and how she’s often a..uh..witch). Put simply, you can win on slots, but you won’t win all the time, and over a long period, attrition will get you.
Many of your best online slot sites tell you their slots payout 90% on average. Sounds fantastic, right? Hold up. That actually means you lose 10 pennies from every pound you run through those babies. It’s a slow drain- pop in 100 pounds 1 pound at a time, probability tells us it will be 90 pounds after the first full feed-through, and then 81 pounds (0.90 x 90), and then 72.90 pounds (0.90 x 81 = 72.90), and so on. While you’ll have wins that seem bigger than that, the stats don’t lie.
And that’s if every machine is paying out at that 90%. Usually, it’s only certain machines, and they’re not going to tell you which, either. So, like the T&C of your favorite PC game, there’s a strong lesson to learn here- always read the fine print. Know the rules, your probability of winning, and your expected payouts.
Making the Most of Slots
So, knowing the system is stacked against you, it’s on you to play smart, not hard. The key to slots is quitting while you’re ahead. If you win 100 pounds, only play further with 50 of it. After you’ve lost your max, quit. Head to the buffet instead. Gambling online? The kitchen’s right there.
Life’s a gamble, sure, but the idea of one last, desperate play to win them all is one best left to the big-budget blockbusters. For us non-glitterati, it’s always worth remembering that easy does it. If you enjoy a poke at the slots in-between your latest Disney+ binge and that hot new PC game, have at it. But always remember that math doesn’t lie, and play for fun, not the hope of that big Hollywood win. Sadly, life isn’t like the movies, so stay safe out there! And remember, even if you’re not winning like a Hollywood roller, at least there’s the new take on Lord of the Rings to look forward to.
